Trump's Iran Warning; AI-Driven Demand Lifts ASML | The Pulse 7/15/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 15, 2026 at 10:24  |  48:29  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mohit Kumar — Chief European Economist & Strategist, Jefferies
Francine Lacqua — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

Technology stocks rallied after ASML raised its outlook on strong AI chipmaking demand. Fed Chair Warsh cautioned that June's softer CPI is not mission accomplished, but markets dialed down near-term hike bets. Oil prices rose as US strikes against Iran continued and Trump backed away from a Hormuz cargo fee. The episode also covered UK political uncertainty, luxury earnings from Richemont, and record equity trading at Wall Street banks.

  • ASML lifts annual sales forecast again, driven by AI-fueled chip fab construction
  • Intel begins using ASML's most advanced EUV tools in production
  • Mohit Kumar sees medium-term upside in AI/tech after a positioning unwind
  • Middle East instability and recent strikes push oil higher; Trump reverses Hormuz toll plan
  • US June CPI surprise reduces expectations for Fed rate hikes
  • Richemont’s strong sales beat highlights resilience in jewelry and US luxury demand
  • UK Labour leadership change and Chancellor uncertainty add near-term political risk
Ideas
Shona 1:10
ASML benefits from relentless AI chipmaking demand.
ASML builds the machines that make chips, and major chipmakers (SK hynix, Samsung, Intel) are building new fabrication plants, driving demand for its equipment. ASML also indicated it will be able to produce more machines in coming years, meaning it can meet rising demand. Intel announced it is using ASML's most advanced $400M EUV machines in production, which is positive because it shows these tools are used for daily output, not just research. Combined, this points to strong and sustained demand for ASML's equipment.
ASML HIGH
Mohit Kumar Chief European Economist & Strategist, Jefferies 4:15
Medium-term buy on AI/tech after positioning unwind.
He is comfortable with AI/tech valuations because earnings remain strong and capex continues. However, expectations are very high and positioning in the AI trade was very heavy, leading to an unwind in recent weeks. Now that positioning has cleaned up, he sees more attractive levels and is medium-term positive on AI/tech again, expecting the sector to resume its upward trend.
AI and technology stocks MED
Mohit Kumar Chief European Economist & Strategist, Jefferies 11:14
Geopolitical instability keeps oil prices elevated.
The Middle East is fundamentally more unstable than before, and while a temporary deal may cap oil near $80 ahead of US midterms, the underlying instability and risk of further escalation after midterms suggest oil prices will remain elevated and volatile. This creates a favorable medium-term setup for oil.
WTI MED
Andrea 45:38
Richemont outperforms luxury on jewelry strength.
Richemont's first-quarter sales grew twice as much as expected, driven by strong US demand and a good direction in Asia. Luxury demand has not fallen off a cliff after the Iran war because Richemont is in the right place with its strong jewelry business and popular Cartier watches (small gold watches, bangle watches are gaining popularity). She doubts anyone else in luxury will be as good as Richemont.
Richemont MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 15, 2026, features Shona, Mohit Kumar, Andrea discussing ASML, AI and technology stocks, WTI, Richemont. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Shona, Mohit Kumar, Andrea  · Tickers: ASML, AI and technology stocks, WTI, Richemont