India, EU Agree 'Mother' Of Trade Deals Amid Trump Tariffs | The Pulse 1/27

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 27, 2026 at 12:29  |  48:48  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
James Lord — Head of FX and Emerging Markets Strategy, Morgan Stanley
Janet Henry — HSBC, Global Chief Economist
Andrea — Bloomberg Opinion Columnist
David Solomon — Chairman and CEO, Goldman Sachs
Matthew — Chief Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Jan Goetz — CEO, IQM Computers
Oliver Crook — Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg
Brendan Murray — Trade Reporter, Bloomberg
Marie-Pierre de Bailliencourt — Managing Director, Institut Montaigne

Summary

EU and India concluded a free trade agreement after two decades, while President Trump threatened 25% tariffs on South Korean goods. Janet Henry discussed a solid but uninspiring global economy, AI-driven growth, sticky inflation, and a Fed on hold. James Lord laid out a weak-dollar view, USD/JPY downside to 151, gold strength, and EM and Asian FX opportunities. Later segments covered M&A/IPO conditions, Puma's Anta stake, LVMH drinks-division catalysts, quantum computing, and Nvidia's China chip sales setup.

  • EU and India conclude a free-trade agreement after two decades of negotiations.
  • Trump threatens 25% tariffs on South Korean goods; markets appear skeptical.
  • Janet Henry sees solid global growth, upside inflation risks, and the Fed on hold.
  • James Lord favors short dollar, lower USD/JPY, gold, EM assets, and Asian currency catch-up.
  • David Solomon says M&A and IPO conditions are very constructive.
  • Anta's 29% Puma stake draws scrutiny of Puma's weak product positioning.
  • LVMH drinks-division corporate activity is a key watch item.
  • Quantum computing and Nvidia's China H200 sales are highlighted as developing tech themes.
Ideas
Janet Henry HSBC, Global Chief Economist 8:05
India reforms support growth story.
India is undertaking domestic reforms and reducing tariffs from high levels, which should be good news for the India growth story. India had been hurt by a fall in exports to the U.S. and overinflation, but it has cut rates and shifted toward more of a consumer story, and the trade deal supports that direction.
James Lord Head of FX and Emerging Markets Strategy, Morgan Stanley 27:55
Short USD/JPY, target 151.
The yen's recent strength is partly due to expectations of coordinated intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Treasury. If follow-through is lacking, USD/JPY could edge higher near term, but he ultimately expects USD/JPY to head lower with a target of 151 and is positioned that way, via intervention or more Fed rate cuts.
James Lord Head of FX and Emerging Markets Strategy, Morgan Stanley 28:05
Dollar weakness favored; short DXY.
The dollar has had a weak start to the year driven by unconventional catalysts, including Fed/Powell issues, Greenland, and FX intervention. The U.S. Treasury appears to have been behind unusual rate checking with Japan, and with potential intervention or more Fed rate cuts later in the year, he expects the dollar to weaken and favors being short the DXY.
James Lord Head of FX and Emerging Markets Strategy, Morgan Stanley 28:21
Gold benefits from safe-haven scarcity.
Gold is a hedge against general uncertainty rather than a specific U.S. risk. With few high-quality AAA safe-haven assets and fiscal stability concerns across developed markets, central bank reserve managers have fewer places to store reserves, which benefits gold.
James Lord Head of FX and Emerging Markets Strategy, Morgan Stanley 29:21
EM favored; spreads should tighten.
Dollar weakness is a huge tailwind for emerging markets. EM fiscal fundamentals are stable or improving, monetary policy is credible, and if developed-market bond markets carry more term premium, it is reasonable to expect EM spreads to tighten, so EM assets and EM bonds look attractive.
James Lord Head of FX and Emerging Markets Strategy, Morgan Stanley 31:51
Asian laggard currencies may catch up.
Last year high-yielding emerging-market currencies, especially in Latin America, outperformed while Asia lagged. He expects some catch-up in the lagging Asian currencies; a stronger yen could be a catalyst, and there is room for the South Korean won to catch up as Korea balances portfolios.
David Solomon Chairman and CEO, Goldman Sachs 32:38
Goldman benefits from strong M&A pipeline.
The environment is constructive for Goldman Sachs's banking and markets business. Backlog is significantly higher, and M&A activity could be one of the best years ever as CEOs feel unleashed and the regulatory environment improves, supporting the company's business outlook.
Andrea Bloomberg Opinion Columnist 36:04
Puma positioning weak; avoid.
Puma lacks a strong position in China's fast-growing outdoor hiking and running trend, while its strength in fashion sneakers is under pressure as consumer tastes shift back toward dressier shoes and tailored outfits. The Anta stake purchase may be strategic for Anta, but Puma's core positioning remains weak.
Andrea Bloomberg Opinion Columnist 37:19
Watch LVMH drinks division corporate action.
The key catalyst to watch for LVMH is corporate activity in its drinks division: whether it buys out minorities or spins off the unit, or whether Diageo buys the Hennessy stake it does not own. Cognac and Hennessy are having a tough time, so drinks-division action could be a company-specific driver.
Jan Goetz CEO, IQM Computers 41:36
Quantum commercial use cases approaching.
Quantum computing is advancing from research toward commercial use, with use cases unlocked over time and the first commercial applications likely in chemical simulation, materials, and pharma. Companies are preparing not to miss the quantum train, and IQM's vertically integrated model positions it for a large, still-undefined market.
Matthew Chief Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 45:55
Watch Nvidia China H200 sales reopening.
China is a relatively small part of Nvidia's business but potentially important going forward. CEO Jensen Huang is in China to engage potential buyers and facilitate H200 sales as Chinese authorities prepare to let local companies order again; the H200 is more anticipated than the previously allowed H20, creating a China sales reopening catalyst to monitor.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 27, 2026, features Janet Henry, James Lord, David Solomon, Andrea, Jan Goetz, Matthew discussing INDA, USD/JPY, DXY, GLD, EEM, Emerging market bonds, Asian currencies, KRW, GS, PUMA, LVMH, QUBT, NVDA. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Janet Henry, James Lord, David Solomon, Andrea, Jan Goetz, Matthew  · Tickers: INDA, USD/JPY, DXY, GLD, EEM, Emerging market bonds, Asian currencies, KRW, GS, PUMA, LVMH, QUBT, NVDA