Personal Incomes Plummet: What’s Behind The $109-Billion Decline? | Bob Elliott

Summary

David Lin interviews Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited, about rising US equity markets against a decelerating US economy. Elliott warns of a season of disappointment because S&P 500 valuations price strong growth while income, labor, demand, housing, and manufacturing data weaken. He favors bonds, foreign stocks, and high yield credit over US equities, expects persistent dollar weakness, prefers the euro and yen over the dollar and the dollar over the Canadian dollar, and sees gold and Bitcoin as less attractive anti-dollar hedges. He expects the Fed on hold and limited tariff-driven inflation but demand destruction ahead.

• Bob Elliott says markets are calm near record highs despite weakening underlying US data.
• Personal income and real consumer demand are soft; labor hiring has frozen and may precede layoffs.
• He warns S&P 500 expectations are too high versus a 0-1% growth economy.
• He prefers bonds, foreign stocks, and high yield credit over US equities.
• He sees structural dollar weakness from foreign asset-manager outflows and US policy.
• He favors euro and yen over the dollar, while liking the dollar against the Canadian dollar.
• He says gold and Bitcoin are less attractive than FX as anti-dollar hedges.
• He expects the Fed to stay on hold and tariffs to be demand-destructive rather than strongly inflationary.