Ideas
Alt season favors quality institutional tokens
Valter argues a 2021-style broad alt season is unlikely because there are far more tokens competing for less liquidity and higher rates. Any new alt season should be concentrated in quality tokens aligned with institutional and regulatory adoption, especially older projects with institutional interest. He cites Ethereum, Solana, AAVE and Chainlink as examples of tokens with that profile, though he cautions they may not necessarily rise this year and warns about hype in new projects.
Ethereum benefits from stablecoin regulation
Cestari sees Ethereum as a key beneficiary of stablecoin regulation and adoption because more than half of stablecoin market cap sits on Ethereum, so GENIUS Act clarity can bring more money to its blockchain. He also highlights Pectra lowering Layer-2 costs and the Ethereum Foundation overhaul toward more institutional and regulatory engagement, improving its competitive position versus Solana.
Coinbase is best-positioned crypto exchange
Cestari highlights Coinbase's new product suite, including stock trading 24/7, leveraged equities and crypto, prediction markets, tokenization for RWA, and global app access, plus the Deribit acquisition for options and its role as custodian for many ETFs. He argues this makes Coinbase a full blockchain-based exchange and one of the best-positioned public equities for crypto adoption, with Goldman Sachs upgrading it to buy.
Stablecoin market cap to triple
Valter expects stablecoin market cap to easily exceed US$400B in 2026 and potentially triple from about US$300B to US$900B-US$1T, driven by GENIUS Act implementation, the Clarity Act, institutional entry, and banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley issuing their own stablecoins. He views stablecoins as a top consensus and a major 2026 narrative.
Circle business limited and competitive
Valter warns Circle is the obvious public stablecoin proxy but may not be the best way to play the theme: its business is limited, sensitive to interest rates, margins are not as large as they appear, and competition is increasing as banks and new stablecoins enter. He says he discussed it with an analyst and the bull case is not obvious.
DeFi lending benefits from stablecoins
Cestari sees DeFi lending protocols AAVE and Morpho as potential beneficiaries of stablecoin growth because their on-chain yield can be plugged into fintech apps, offering dollar yield to users. He notes AAVE launched a new app and says the thesis is worth watching, though he frames it as a developing opportunity rather than a clean bet.
Tokenization/RWA has huge growth runway
Valter highlights tokenization and RWA as a major 2026 thesis: only about US$34B of assets are tokenized versus a US$600T addressable market. Tokenization can improve fraud prevention, transparency and accounting, but privacy issues remain. He prefers exposure through platforms that enable tokenization rather than only picking protocols that may not see near-term price impact.
Hyperliquid non-crypto volumes to exceed crypto
Valter predicts that by 2026 the volume of non-crypto perpetuals traded on Hyperliquid will exceed crypto perpetual volume. He sees Hyperliquid as the cleanest way to express the tokenization of non-crypto assets on-chain and says the trend can work independently of bull or bear crypto markets.
Most AI crypto projects are overhyped
Valter argues AI-crypto convergence is more overhyped than real: most AI crypto projects do not make sense, and chatbots and AI agents are overhyped. The real disruption is software-engineering agents, but he sees no clear way to express that through crypto tokens, so investors should be careful with specific protocol bets.
Prediction markets to grow in 2026
Valter agrees prediction markets are a major 2026 thesis. He expects Polymarket open interest to potentially exceed 2024 election-year levels, sees Coinbase integrating prediction markets, and expects impact markets to emerge and grow the sector, though he acknowledges centralized listing and insider-trading concerns.
Bitcoin to $200k in 2026
Valter expects Bitcoin to reach US$200,000 in 2026 as the year high. He argues the four-year cycle is ending because institutional buyers, ETFs and much larger capital pools now dominate price-setting, while halving supply cuts are mathematically less relevant since most BTC has already been mined. He remains long-term bullish despite 2025 consolidation and sees institutional limit orders near the ETF accumulation zone around US$84k as support.
Bitcoin to $150k by 2026
Cestari is more conservative and expects Bitcoin to trade up to US$150,000 by the end of 2026. He sees the market in a consolidation phase with institutional support around ETF accumulation levels, expects no clear bear market for now, but stresses risk management and regime reading rather than relying on the four-year cycle.
This Market Makers video, published January 10, 2026,
features Valter Rebelo, Marcello Cestari
discussing AAVE, LINK, ETH, SOL, COIN, STABLECOINS, CRCL, MORPHO, RWA, HYPE, AI-SECTOR, PREDICTION MARKETS, BTC.
12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Valter Rebelo,
Marcello Cestari
· Tickers:
AAVE,
LINK,
ETH,
SOL,
COIN,
STABLECOINS,
CRCL,
MORPHO,
RWA,
HYPE,
AI-SECTOR,
PREDICTION MARKETS,
BTC
