Three Investment Lessons from 2025

Summary

Park Se-ik and Choi Ho host a New Year newspaper-reading episode that reviews 2025 market performance and extracts investment lessons. The main implications are to avoid panic selling in US equities, judge valuations with growth-adjusted PEG rather than P/E alone, and avoid currency-hedged ETFs for long-term overseas investing. The hosts also highlight a continued AI/semiconductor cycle through at least 2029, with Korean semiconductor and ESS/lithium beneficiaries, while flagging risks around EV battery materials and consensus KOSPI targets.

• 2025 KOSPI rose about 75.6% and KOSDAQ about 36.5%, led first by shipbuilding, power and nuclear, then by AI semiconductors.
• Three investment lessons: do not panic sell in crashes, S&P 500 drawdowns often still end with positive annual returns, and P/E must be paired with EPS growth.
• Long-term overseas investors should avoid currency-hedged ETFs because hedging costs drag returns.
• Park Se-ik expects the AI and semiconductor cycle to run at least through 2029 and sees sharp memory-driven selloffs as buying opportunities with proper cash management.
• Doosan Enerbility is highlighted for gas turbine localization and US export exposure tied to AI data-center power demand.
• K-battery sentiment is weak on EV demand, but ESS demand and a rebounding lithium price are cited as reasons for patience.
• Buffett's retirement, Berkshire's cash pile, and the new CEO are discussed without a clear trade.
• The episode closes with personal-value reflections and a warning about impersonation scams.