Bloomberg Surveillance 7/9/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | July 09, 2026 at 14:49 | 2:24:23 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Bob Elliott — CEO & CIO, Unlimited; ex-Investment Committee, Bridgewater

Mandeep Singh — Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Rolf Bulk — Head of Semiconductors, Futurum Equities

Greg Peters — PGIM Fixed Income

David Lebovitz — Multi-Asset Solutions Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Michelle Weaver — US Thematic Strategist

Savanthi Syth — Airline Analyst, Raymond James

Matt Stucky — Chief Portfolio Manager, Northwestern Mutual

Claudia Sahm — Economist, Federal Reserve Board

Vito Sperduto — RBC Capital Markets

Summary

The program covers the AI trade's sustainability amid enormous capex, a shift in Fed policy toward possible rate hikes due to sticky inflation and energy pressures, and the Iran conflict's impact on oil. Memory chip names like SK Hynix see strong demand ahead of a massive US listing. Guests recommend a rotation out of crowded AI positions, favoring high-yield credit, biotech, and broad-market equities, while fixed-income views center on curve steepening.

Bob Elliott warns AI capex road to poor returns; rebalance away.
Mandip Singh calls memory chip cycle the strongest in 30 years.
SK Hynix US IPO seven times oversubscribed, seen as valuation gap closer.
Fed minutes split; Greg Peters advocates steepening trades, short long bonds.
JPMorgan AM sees rotation into non-tech, high-yield, and EM tech.
Morgan Stanley highlights extreme semiconductor positioning and biotech upside.
Delta Air Lines buoyed by strong demand and pricing power; top pick.
Iran tensions escalate but crude oil rise contained; new normal for the Strait.

Ideas

Bob Elliott CEO & CIO, Unlimited; ex-Investment Committee, Bridgewater 6:38

Avoid AI stocks; earnings expectations unrealistic.

AI capex of $5 trillion over five years requires implausible trillions in revenue to generate reasonable return. Earnings expectations for the next three quarters imply 31% annualized growth, the highest in 50 years, while data center growth is already slowing. Long-only investors should rebalance away from the AI mania rather than lean in.

Mandeep Singh Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 31:01

Memory chip cycle strongest ever; buy.

Memory companies historically cyclical but now over 50% of Micron's revenue comes from long-term supply agreements locking in volume and pricing for 3-5 years with high gross margins. This structural shift warrants higher multiples than the current 5-6x forward earnings.

David Lebovitz Multi-Asset Solutions Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 55:06

Buy high-yield for 7% yield, low vol.

High-yield credit offers a 7% yield with about one-third the volatility of equities and is well positioned in the AI supply chain (the picks and shovels that build data centers). Attractive alternative to equities.

David Lebovitz Multi-Asset Solutions Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 55:18

Rotate into non-tech equities.

AI productivity will lift the broader economy. When non-tech parts of the market sell off, it creates opportunity; a rising tide will lift all ships. Growth momentum and the rotation trade support the rest of the market, not just tech.

David Lebovitz Multi-Asset Solutions Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 58:17

Buy EM for cheap AI exposure.

Emerging markets and parts of China provide a cheaper way to get AI tech exposure. Valuations are more favorable than US tech, offering an interesting play at a discount.

Greg Peters PGIM Fixed Income 92:12

Steepen yield curve; short long bonds.

Fed rate hikes, persistent inflation, and massive supply from AI hyperscaler debt and sovereign issuance will push long-end Treasury yields substantially higher. Investors should steepen the curve: favor belly of the curve (intermediate maturities) and avoid long bonds.

Greg Peters PGIM Fixed Income 92:12

Steepen yield curve; short long bonds.

Fed rate hikes, persistent inflation, and massive supply from AI hyperscaler debt and sovereign issuance will push long-end Treasury yields substantially higher. Investors should steepen the curve: favor belly of the curve (intermediate maturities) and avoid long bonds.

Michelle Weaver US Thematic Strategist 105:31

Biotech wins from M&A and AI.

Biotech benefits from strong M&A activity and the adoption of AI to accelerate drug discovery. It offers a dual play on the M&A theme and the AI theme.

Savanthi Syth Airline Analyst, Raymond James 113:11

Buy Delta on strong air travel.

Airline demand is strong with robust pricing power and little passenger pushback. Industry capacity discipline keeps supply tight. Delta is a top pick with unique revenue and margin opportunities, poised for a positive earnings report.

Matt Stucky Chief Portfolio Manager, Northwestern Mutual 142:11

Buy semi equipment and NVIDIA.

AI capex spending flows to semiconductor equipment suppliers and to NVIDIA. These picks-and-shovels names benefit from secular build-out and remain attractive long-term holdings.

Up Next

Data Is the Next $1 Trillion Market

This Week in Startups · Jul 09

OpenAI's newest AI model is 54% more token efficient on agentic coding, Sam Altman tells CNBC

Market Open: Stocks Mixed; Continuing Jobless Claims Rise Again • 7/9/26

Understanding Equity Dilution for Founders

Morgan Stanley · Jul 09

DiMartino Booth: No Rate Hike Coming, Labor Force Participation Collapsing, Market Too Big To Fail?

Julia LaRoche Show · Jul 09

This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 09, 2026, features Bob Elliott, Mandeep Singh, David Lebovitz, Greg Peters, Michelle Weaver, Savanthi Syth, Matt Stucky discussing QQQ, 000660.KS, MU, 005930.KS, HYG, IWM, RSP, EEM, TLT, IEF, IBB, DAL, SOXX, NVDA. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Bob Elliott, Mandeep Singh, David Lebovitz, Greg Peters, Michelle Weaver, Savanthi Syth, Matt Stucky · Tickers: QQQ, 000660.KS, MU, 005930.KS, HYG, IWM, RSP, EEM, TLT, IEF, IBB, DAL, SOXX, NVDA