Name: The Era of Easy Investing is Over...Operating Profit is 800 Trillion, But Samjeonnix Stock 'Plummets 30%'? | Hong Seonae, Kim Hanjin 3PRO TV Economists [Yeouido Insight]
Uploaded: 2026-05-26T08:55:05+00:00
Duration: 2583 s

Speakers

Kim Han-jin — Economist

Summary

Economist Kim Han-jin discusses the structural upgrade of KOSPI driven by AI and semiconductor earnings, warns of a near-term 30% correction in Samsung and SK Hynix, and argues that US tech is not in a bubble. He expects oil prices to fall if Hormuz reopens and highlights AI infrastructure suppliers as the main beneficiaries.

KOSPI is undergoing a structural re-rating with a target range of 10,000-12,000.
Semiconductor stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix) are expected to peak and correct 30% this year.
Oil prices likely to fall to mid-$70s if Hormuz Strait reopens.
US tech sector (S&P 500 IT) is not in a bubble; current valuations mimic Oct 1998.
AI infrastructure pick-and-shovel suppliers are generating real profits.
Fed is unlikely to cut rates in 2026 due to sticky inflation.
The long-term AI capex cycle of $4 trillion supports continued semiconductor demand.
Korean manufacturing and G2 conflict are structural tailwinds for the market.

Trade Ideas

Kim Han-jin Economist 3:20

KOSPI structurally re-rating to 10000+.

The KOSPI is undergoing a structural re-rating similar to past cycles (1983-1987, 2003-2007) driven by the AI semiconductor boom, improved corporate ROE (rising from 7-10% to 15-20%), and tailwinds from G2 conflict. The PBR range is expected to shift from 1-1.3x to 2-2.5x, supporting a long-term index range of 6,000-10,000 or even 8,000-12,000 depending on the AI capex trajectory.

Kim Han-jin Economist 11:00

AI pick-and-shovel suppliers are profitable.

The AI infrastructure buildout (data centers, GPU, CPU, PCBs, MLCCs, glass substrates) creates a gold-rush environment where the pick-and-shovel suppliers (component makers) are the ones making real money now, as hyper-scalers invest $4 trillion over 4-5 years regardless of when AI applications become profitable.

Kim Han-jin Economist 18:00

US tech not in bubble, room up.

Current US tech valuations (S&P 500 IT + Communication Services at 23x forward PE) are comparable to October 1998 (25x), not the extreme bubble of early 2000. The weight of earnings supports the market cap weight, so there is no bubble signal. The cycle is in the 7th or 8th inning, still with upside potential rather than imminent collapse.

Kim Han-jin Economist 26:50

Semiconductor stocks to correct 30% soon.

Semiconductor earnings for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are surging (6x YoY this year, 50% growth next year) but the market will price in forward estimates aggressively. As a result, semiconductor stocks are likely to peak between now and year-end and then correct 30% or more, after which they will recover as the longer-term AI capex cycle (4 trillion USD) validates structural demand.

Kim Han-jin Economist 31:10

Oil prices to fall to $75.

If the Hormuz Strait reopens (likely within 30 days) and a ceasefire is reached, oil prices will fall sharply to the mid-$70s per barrel by year-end, with a temporary spike after that followed by a gradual decline in the second half of the year.

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published May 26, 2026, features Kim Han-jin discussing EWY, Korean AI semiconductor equipment & materials sector, XLK, KS, WTI. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kim Han-jin · Tickers: EWY, Korean AI semiconductor equipment & materials sector, XLK, KS, WTI

The Era of Easy Investing is Over...Operating Profit is 800 Trillion, But Samjeonnix Stock 'Plummets 30%'? | Hong Seonae, Kim Hanjin 3PRO TV Economists [Yeouido Insight]

Summary

Trade Ideas

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