Fundstrat's Mark Newton on the Treasury's intervention and its impact on the bond market

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 20, 2026 at 22:00  |  3:37  |  CNBC
Speakers
Mark Newton — Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors

Summary

Fundstrat's Mark Newton argues the Treasury's liquidity intervention is a game changer that can send stocks to new highs, while also supporting long-end Treasuries and weakening the dollar. He highlights gold and Bitcoin as reflationary beneficiaries and favors health care, energy, and materials as near-term sector leaders. He expects crude oil to make a final push to $100-$110 before fading into year-end. Newton sees higher rates and crude as only a temporary headwind for equities.

  • Treasury intervention viewed as a liquidity backstop with implied long-end yield put levels.
  • Broad stock market seen positively on breadth improvement and lingering skepticism.
  • Long-end rate velocity was the catalyst for Treasury action.
  • Gold and Bitcoin cited as near-term reflationary and liquidity beneficiaries.
  • Dollar expected to move meaningfully lower.
  • Health care, energy, and materials favored as near-term sector leaders.
  • Crude oil seen making a final push to $100-$110 before fading into year-end.
Ideas
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 0:29
Treasury intervention supports stocks to new highs.
The Treasury intervention is a game changer and hugely reflationary, addressing liquidity concerns. Breadth improvement and ongoing skepticism support stocks reaching new highs as soon as next week, though rates and crude are temporary headwinds.
SPY Nasdaq-100 Equal Weight Index HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 0:36
Treasury intervention supports long-end Treasuries.
The velocity of the long-end rate breakout had gotten out of hand, and the Treasury is stepping in to help liquidity with an implied Treasury put around 4.75% on the 10-year and 5.30% on the 30-year, supporting the long end.
TLT MED
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 0:48
Reflationary liquidity trade lifted gold and Bitcoin.
The Treasury move is a reflationary liquidity trade, and gold and bitcoin surged near term as beneficiaries of that reflation and liquidity impulse.
GLD BTC LOW
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 1:52
Treasury move should weaken the dollar.
A lower dollar would help reduce debt-to-GDP and support the U.S. position. Treasury stepping in for liquidity should allow the dollar to go meaningfully lower while growth remains pretty decent.
DXY MED
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 2:16
Health care is breaking out; long sector.
Health care broke out of a nearly three-year downtrend. Drug pricing and ACA subsidy concerns have turned, biotech is surging, deals are happening across biotech, pharma, and HMOs, and GLP-1 helps pharma stocks.
XLV HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 2:16
Energy is a short-term long sector.
Energy is a short-term long. Crude is expected to revisit $100, with oil moving through Red Sea and Gulf of Oman pipelines and some Strait traffic being circumvented, keeping energy supportive for alpha over the next few months.
XLE HIGH
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 2:16
Materials benefit from ongoing commodity surge.
Materials should benefit from a commodity surge that started yesterday and is likely an ongoing theme over the next few months.
XLB MED
Mark Newton Managing Director and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors 2:50
Crude has final push to $100-$110.
Crude is set for one final push up to around $100-$110 near term as Red Sea and Gulf of Oman pipeline routes are used, before ending the year down near the lows. Energy is currently a short-term long.
WTI HIGH
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This CNBC video, published August 20, 2026, features Mark Newton discussing SPY, Nasdaq-100 Equal Weight Index, TLT, GLD, BTC, DXY, XLV, XLE, XLB, WTI. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Newton  · Tickers: SPY, Nasdaq-100 Equal Weight Index, TLT, GLD, BTC, DXY, XLV, XLE, XLB, WTI