CLARITY Stalls, Kalshi Heads Toward SCOTUS & Wall Street Goes Onchain
Speakers
Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos
— Host
Renato Mariotti
— Legal commentator, Bloomberg Law
Rebecca Rettig
— Chief Legal & Policy Officer, Polygon Labs
Summary
The Policy Protocol breaks down prediction-market litigation after the Ninth Circuit ruling against Kalshi and New Jersey's Supreme Court cert petition, plus the SEC's 24/7 trading roundtable. Guest Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos discusses a 21-bank stablecoin consortium, Hyperliquid's potential onshore path via Kraken/Bitnomial, the London Stock Exchange's onchain push, and CLARITY legislation. The main market implications are stablecoin competition for Circle and Tether, possible onshore Hyperliquid access, and tokenization tailwinds for Chainlink.
- The Ninth Circuit ruled sports event contracts are not swaps, creating a circuit split with the Third Circuit and a possible Supreme Court review.
- New Jersey filed a cert petition before the Supreme Court over prediction markets.
- The SEC announced a 24/7 trading roundtable with major TradFi participants.
- 21 global banks plan a joint USD stablecoin, increasing competition for Circle and Tether.
- Kraken/Payward's Bitnomial licenses could create CFTC-regulated derivatives linked to Hyperliquid markets.
- The London Stock Exchange plans to bring its 100 largest companies onchain.
- CLARITY legislation faces delays and political blame, clouding crypto regulatory clarity.
Ideas
Bank stablecoin threatens Circle and Tether
21 major global banks including Bank of America, Citi, and Goldman Sachs committed to launching a USD-denominated stablecoin. Katherine views this as the bank version of the Open Standard announcement and argues regulated depository banks have a completely different structure and motivation. This creates real competition for legacy stablecoin issuers, putting Circle and Tether under siege.
Bitnomial licenses offer Hyperliquid onshore path
She does not see an easy legal path for Hyperliquid perps to migrate to the US as currently structured, but Kraken/Payward's Bitnomial acquisition gives a full stack of CFTC derivatives licenses. She expects Bitnomial's DCM to list selected CFTC-regulated derivative contracts economically linked to Hyperliquid markets rather than giving direct access to Hyperliquid's decentralized platform. That is a creative way for Hyperliquid to move onshore and other DCMs may follow.
Chainlink benefits from tokenization push
The London Stock Exchange's plan to bring its 100 largest listed companies onchain is part of tokenization becoming the future. Chainlink's value proposition is to support tokenization growth and bring traditional financial services onchain, including data and data flow into traditional exchanges, so the initiative is positive for Chainlink.
