Name: The Lads Return for the BTC ATH!
Uploaded: 2025-05-23T14:15:38+00:00
Duration: 3847 s

Speakers

Thiccy — Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant

Justin Bram — Reporter, The Block

Taiki Maeda — Founder, HFA Research

Jordi Alexander — Founder & CEO, Selini Capital

Summary

The Steady Lads return for an in-person episode as Bitcoin trades near all-time highs. They discuss Thiccy's event-based Bitcoin-vs-gold framework, mixed views on Ethereum at $2,500, Hyperliquid's rise and a public whale BTC long, the launchpad battle against Pump.fun, and market-maker drama. Later segments cover the value of attention, a market-making game, and the pasta of the month.

Bitcoin is near $107K and the hosts discuss whether the rally can continue.
Thiccy presents an event-based framework suggesting Bitcoin is not expensive relative to gold.
Justin remains a large ETH holder and views $2,500 as fair value, while Taiki no longer believes ETH can outperform and sees Solana potentially flipping it.
Taiki still favors Fartcoin and Maker as part of a DeFi-and-memecoin barbell.
Jordi thinks Hyperliquid can double from the $20s but flags procyclical and airdrop risks.
The group analyzes a public whale's large BTC long on Hyperliquid and Hyperliquid's public-position culture.
Market-maker drama, Pump.fun competition, tokenized equities, and attention-economy capture rates are discussed without a clean trade.
The episode ends with pasta-of-the-month stories about ETH co-founder selling and a Hyperliquid-flip-Solana bet.

Ideas

Thiccy Quant Trader / Former HFT Quant 2:25

Bitcoin event-time ratio may rise versus gold

Using event-based time rather than calendar time, Bitcoin has existed for roughly 10% of the human attention and experience that gold has, which is similar to Bitcoin's current market cap ratio to gold. As adoption and population grow, that ratio should continue rising around 5.5% annually, so Bitcoin is not expensive relative to gold and could eventually flip gold if other monetary properties favor it.

Justin Bram Reporter, The Block 4:31

ETH is fair value at 2500

Justin says he remains a large ETH holder and feels good at the current ~$2,500 price. He views ETH as fair value and not too expensive at a ~$300B valuation, and notes the Ethereum community is waking up, though he acknowledges it may be too little too late.

Taiki Maeda Founder, HFA Research 6:36

Fartcoin is the cycle's chosen memecoin

Taiki believes in a barbell of mid-curve DeFi and Fartcoin, calling Fartcoin the chosen memecoin and the most likely memecoin to hit new highs this cycle.

Taiki Maeda Founder, HFA Research 6:47

Still holding Maker as mid-curve DeFi

As the mid-curve DeFi part of his barbell, Taiki says he still owns Maker.

Jordi Alexander Founder & CEO, Selini Capital 13:23

Hyperliquid can still double from here

Jordi thinks Hyperliquid can still 2x from around the $20s because it is the gold standard for cash-flow-accruing crypto assets with substantial buybacks and around $1B revenue, though he flags procyclicality and a large airdrop cohort as risks.

Taiki Maeda Founder, HFA Research 52:52

Solana may flip Ethereum; avoid ETH

Taiki no longer believes ETH can outperform; he argues event-based time and recent market attention favor Solana, where every recent meta has happened, and therefore Solana can flip Ethereum. He is also skeptical of ETH's positioning for the next metas, crypto AI and tokenized equities, calling it potentially too socialist.

Taiki Maeda Founder, HFA Research 52:52

Solana may flip Ethereum; avoid ETH

The Lads Return for the BTC ATH!

Summary

Ideas

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