Korean Stock Market Trapped in a Box Range… Three Catalysts to Spark a Sharp Rally / Where Are Leading Stocks After Chuseok? | Lee Jung-yoon, Tax Accountant

Summary

Lee Jung-yoon, a tax accountant and active investor, explains that KOSPI is trapped in a 6,500–7,000 box after a historic rally and crash. He says investor deposits and volume are falling, with all three major voluntary buyer groups net sellers over the past month and only corporate buybacks supporting the market. He identifies three potential catalysts for a breakout: AI acceleration sentiment, a rate freeze or cut, and an end to the U.S.-Iran war that lowers oil. He also warns that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings growth may be peaking and AI slowdown worries could pressure semiconductor valuations.

• KOSPI has been boxed around 6,500–7,000 after a 2,280→9,380 rally and a 5,200 crash.
• Retail, foreign, and institutional investors have all been net sellers over the past month, leaving mandatory buybacks as the main buyer.
• Three upside catalysts: pro-AI acceleration shift, rate freeze/cut, and U.S.-Iran war resolution/oil stabilization.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are the key AI-related supply-side leaders for the Korean market.
• Earnings growth rates for Samsung and SK hynix may be hard to exceed, and AI slowdown debate is a valuation risk.
• The guest advises range-trading in the box and holding rather than selling at breakeven for long-term holders.
• Oil above $100 is keeping inflation and rate-hike risk alive for Korea.