India Wary as Pakistan Hailed by World Leaders as Middle East Peacemaker

Summary

• Pakistan's role as a Middle East peacemaker is seen as a strategic setback for India, which has aimed to isolate Pakistan globally.
• Peace in the Middle East would benefit India economically due to its involvement in regional projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and I2U2.
• India did not actively mediate in the conflict due to cautious diplomacy, lack of formal invitation, and strained relations with key belligerents like Iran and the US.
• Pakistan's enhanced reputation as a middle power could increase its sway with the US, potentially complicating US-India relations and affecting the pending trade deal.
• India's position as a leader of the Global South is challenged by its close ties with Israel, which faces criticism in the Global South for its actions in Gaza.
• Despite the setback, India remains a key player in the Middle East with strong ties to GCC states, significant energy interests, and a large expatriate community.
• The US-India relationship has been shaky, and Pakistan's facilitation role, endorsed by the US, may hinder efforts to mend ties and advance trade agreements.
• Pakistan may leverage its new status to improve relations with other South Asian countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and deepen influence in the Middle East.
• Prime Minister Modi's domestic image is unlikely to be severely impacted, as supporters advocate for staying out of complex mediation processes.
• The outcome hinges on whether Pakistan can secure a permanent peace; failure would be a setback for Pakistan's newfound global standing.