VO VOW.DE Volkswagen AG Ordinary Shares Loading... VOW3.DE VWAGY VWAPY : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author argues Volkswagen is at least fairly valued if not underpriced, with a market cap of ~€36bn against €34.5bn net liquidity and €320bn in sales (market cap only ~11% of gross sales). They see the EU product base as dominant and believe the financing arm can pass rising rates to consumers, with ~67% fixed-rate debt and hedges limiting rate impact. The market is pricing in a very pessimistic scenario while fundamentals tell a more positive story, making this a value opportunity. Main risk implied is market loss of confidence and China exposure, though the author notes the stock is attractive even excluding China.

The author argues Volkswagen is at least fairly valued if not underpriced, with a market cap of about €36bn against €34.5bn net liquidity and €320bn in sales (market cap ~11% of gross sales). The bull case rests on a strong EU product base, healthy debt structure (~67% fixed, 33% floating) with hedging so rising rates are passed to consumers, and an attractive valuation even excluding China's equity-accounted JVs. The author claims the price signals lost market confidence and prices in a very pessimistic scenario while fundamentals tell a more positive story. Main risk implied is the market's pessimistic pricing and China JV accounting complexity.

Greer says U.S. 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs divert Chinese vehicle exports to Europe, creating a China shock 2.0 for the EU. He points to Volkswagen and a Spanish marque as already struggling, implying sustained competitive pressure on European automakers.