U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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16:00
Aug 31
Aug 31
Short two-year Treasuries on hawkish repricing.
The hawkish repricing is not a certainty because the Fed remains data-dependent and is reducing forward guidance. If August employment weakens quickly or inflation surprises to the downside, hike probabilities could fall as fast as they rose; in that disinflation scenario, short-term bonds would recover, the dollar could weaken, and long-duration assets such as technology, gold and Bitcoin could benefit.
HIGH
07:44
Aug 31
Aug 31
Hawkish Fed means higher Treasury yields.
Fed communication is now clear that it will prioritize inflation and hike rates if inflation does not trend down, and it has regained control of the long end of the yield curve; the 10-year yield could move in an orderly way toward 5% and the market can absorb that, while disorderly moves are the main risk.
HIGH
21:51
Jun 17
Jun 17
Two-year Treasury overreacted, yields likely fall.
The two-year Treasury selloff was an overreaction driven by speculative longs expecting a more dovish Fed. The yield is likely to settle down another 10bp, closer to 4%, making the two-year a buy.
MED
About U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note across 2 sources: 1 bullish vs 2 bearish calls from 3 authors. Historical directional balance: -33% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 3 total trade ideas tracked. Latest voices: Pablo Gil, Divye, Ken Shinoda.