SE SES Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

Author views SES as the highest-convexity battery moonshot: a ~$200M company with ~$163M liquidity, a drone battery ramp, an ESS business via UZ Energy, and an AI battery materials platform. The mechanism is that one decent drone or storage program can move the needle for such a small company. Stated risks are cash burn, a $150M ATM authorization relative to its market cap, and possible business failure.

SES, a Luxembourg-based satellite and spectrum company with 120 satellites and valuable spectrum bands, is much cheaper than SpaceX. It has scale after acquiring Intelsat, benefits from growing connectivity demand, and at this valuation the market is giving it very little credit. It trades in Paris and Luxembourg but may be accessible via brokers.

Secure Energy/Secure Waste Infrastructure has transformed from an energy services company into a waste infrastructure business with recurring waste streams, long-term contracts, and higher margins and ROCs than municipal waste peers because it lacks expensive truck collection assets. GFL's buyout at about 11x EBITDA undervalues it versus municipal waste comps around 15x; Abrams Capital is opposing the deal, and Chad thinks the price is too cheap, though he is still deciding how to vote. This supports the produced-water/waste re-rating thesis.