KR KRX:KOSDAQ KOSDAQ Composite Index Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Until the FOMC, macro variables hit KOSPI more because Samsung Electronics and SK hynix dominate its market cap. KOSDAQ is less directly affected and may benefit from semiconductor equipment spillover, so a 70/30 KOSPI/KOSDAQ allocation is reasonable.

Foreign investors have effectively abandoned KOSDAQ; trading is dead, almost no stock saw foreign buying above 100 billion won except Silicon2 and Alteogen, and sell amounts are much larger. After a technical rebound, KOSDAQ has no clear direction.

KOSDAQ activity is improving; top-five trading turnover has expanded sharply, with fifth place reaching about 131bn won versus previously around 50bn, indicating that KOSDAQ market participation is becoming active again.

The new KOSDAQ Select Index will be based on actually profitable companies rather than pure market cap, reducing bio and robotics weight while increasing semiconductor materials/equipment weight; ETFs tracking it are likely to attract funds and make KOSDAQ trading easier from Q4, supporting a KOSDAQ revival.

After a three-day holiday and next week's event vacuum, short-term profit-taking could emerge because the market has risen quickly, especially in KOSDAQ where technical burden has built up. He advises new buyers not to rush and expects a rest week rather than a sharp drop.

Within KOSDAQ, mid-to-long-term money flows will favor materials, parts, and equipment (소부장) companies over biotech because around 50% of top-tier classified firms will be 소부장, and these companies have stronger fundamental backing compared to biotech firms stuck in late-stage clinical trials.

While KOSPI large-cap memory stocks face foreign selling and heavy volatility, KOSDAQ small/mid-cap semiconductor equipment and materials (소부장) are showing relative strength and offer short-term trading opportunities for daily traders looking to capture rotations away from the main board.

KOSDAQ is reducing its top-segment constituents from 100 to 70 names, creating a 'first league'. Eligibility will likely require a minimum market cap and, importantly, a track record of real earnings. Companies in semiconductor equipment/materials that are delivering strong profits are almost certain to be included, while bio and secondary battery names with poor earnings are likely to be excluded. This creates a structural demand catalyst for KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment and materials stocks.

Within KOSDAQ, semiconductor equipment and materials stocks (소부장) are the segment with real earnings growth and are likely to be included in the new KOSDAQ Prime index, attracting institutional and pension money. The upcoming KOSDAQ 30th anniversary on July 1st and policy changes (승강제) will further direct flows toward these names.

The KOSDAQ index is facing strong resistance at 1,050 points. It is premature and risky to buy leveraged KOSDAQ ETFs now. Wait for a confirmed breakout above the 1,080–1,100 level before committing capital, otherwise the vehicle will underperform.