AL ALPEXSOLAR.NS Alpex Solar Limited Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author argues Alpex Solar's environmental clearance has now been formally approved by the SEIAA committee, removing a regulatory blocker for further operations. The catalyst is operational readiness around Oct 1-4 and a November 15 concall, with ALMM List 2 inclusion expected around Oct 21-30. The main stated risk is execution timing, as the author hopes management delivers on timely execution despite the long wait.

An unofficial report claims China has banned export of solar cell manufacturing technology, which the author argues lets existing cell makers control the market for longer since anyone starting a cell plant now faces grave timeline issues. Alpex Solar is cited as a positive beneficiary as long as the government does not change its stance. The author notes full impact is yet to be ascertained and the news is unofficial, which is the main risk.

The author claims Alpex Solar has inaugurated a 2.2 GW cell plant that will start production soon, with management guiding PAT and EBITDA margins to double and revenue to double in FY28 versus FY26 (about 4000 cr revenue and 600 cr PAT). The stock is said to be trading at a technical support zone in the 800-1000 rangebound area at a PE of 12-15, which the author argues could support a re-rating to a 7200-9000 crore market cap. The main stated risk is that the next leg of investment will decide further upmove, and the author explicitly says DYOR with no recommendations.