Speaker is "cautious" and "underweight duration" in fixed income. She cites the risk that sustained high oil prices could turn inflation from transitory to structural, causing the long end of the curve to "twist higher." The geopolitical uncertainty and its inflationary consequences create significant risk for bond prices, particularly on the long end. The sector requires careful monitoring due to asymmetric risk from potential inflationary pressures; a defensive, short-duration stance is prudent. A rapid de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a swift drop in oil prices and inflation expectations.