Alekseeva stated duration is "not the place," but "we still like the front end" as a better risk/reward, expecting more rate volatility and gradual curve steepening. The front-end is anchored by a Fed on hold, while term premium and inflation shocks drive volatility in the long-end. Higher money market assets ($8T) show strong demand for short-term yield. Front-end Treasuries offer attractive yield with less volatility and downside risk compared to long-duration assets in a "higher for longer" environment. The Fed surprises with rate cuts, diminishing the front-end's yield advantage.
Alekseeva stated duration is "not the place," but "we still like the front end" as a better risk/reward, expecting more rate volatility and gradual curve steepening. The front-end is anchored by a Fed on hold, while term premium and inflation shocks drive volatility in the long-end. Higher money market assets ($8T) show strong demand for short-term yield. Front-end Treasuries offer attractive yield with less volatility and downside risk compared to long-duration assets in a "higher for longer" environment. The Fed surprises with rate cuts, diminishing the front-end's yield advantage.