Yoon Seok-cheon

Korean battery makers and material suppliers will benefit as Chinese EVs suffer from quality and reliability issues. European OEMs (Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen) are shifting orders to Korean companies like LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI. Korean battery market share, which has been declining, is expected to recover starting in the second half of this year.

POSCO Future M converted an existing line to LFP and secured a 190,000-ton LFP cathode contract worth about 3 trillion won over six years, implying roughly 500 billion won of annual revenue; FEOC rules require cell makers to source around 80 percent non-China cathode, so LFP cathode supply should stay tight and benefit POSCO Future M and L&F.

Tesla and Hyundai Motor are entering the monetization phase for humanoid robots; Tesla Optimus 3rd gen will start mass production in August, and Hyundai's Atlas is testing at Georgia plant, providing visible cash generation from robot operations.

LG Energy Solution has pricing power in the ESS/data center market due to a shortage of reliable non-Chinese suppliers; its recent high-priced 2.4 trillion won order from DTE Energy shows buyer urgency, and the stock will eventually reflect its earnings growth.

LG Energy Solution and LG Chem hold the world's largest battery patent portfolio, and LG is now aggressively enforcing it against Chinese makers like Sunwoda, BYD, and EVE Energy in Europe and the U.S., including fast ITC import-ban actions. This can force OEMs to switch to Korean batteries or pay royalties/indemnities, creating a Qualcomm-like royalty and defensive moat.

POSCO Future M converted an existing line to LFP and secured a 190,000-ton LFP cathode contract worth about 3 trillion won over six years, implying roughly 500 billion won of annual revenue; FEOC rules require cell makers to source around 80 percent non-China cathode, so LFP cathode supply should stay tight and benefit POSCO Future M and L&F.

Lithium prices fell to around $22/kg after supply bottlenecks eased in June, but Chinese lithium carbonate inventory days have fallen from about 40 to 19 days, global lithium demand is exploding, and UBS and the IEA see a third lithium supercycle with demand tripling by 2030; he expects lithium to bottom near $22 and trend upward in the second half.

The Korean battery sector has already begun a turnaround this year after a tough period, and the recovery will accelerate over the next year or two. He states that the worst of the sentiment and market‑share losses is over, and Korean battery companies are starting to reclaim lost ground, driven by EU/US regulation excluding Chinese batteries and the structural advantages of ternary technology.

Posco Holdings' lithium business in Argentina has been significantly de-risked by unprecedented government incentives: 30-year legal stability guarantee against state intervention, removal of foreign exchange controls, export tariff exemption, and tax breaks. Combined with capacity expansion from 93kt in 2025 to 116kt by end 2026 and a 2030 target of 423kt, Posco is set to become a global top lithium producer. Even at current lithium prices (~$24/kg) stabilized by China's supply-side policy, Posco's average production cost of ~$10/kg secures high margins, reinforcing the shift from steel to energy materials.

Hyundai Motor and Kia have superior hardware quality, durability, and driving dynamics compared to Chinese EVs. They have won World Car of the Year awards for four consecutive years (Ioniq 5, Ioniq 6, EV9, Kia EV3). Their early exit from the Chinese market was a wise strategic move, and they have successfully invested in EV transition. Their global competitiveness is unmatched by Chinese automakers.

EcoPro BM benefits from EU's Critical Raw Materials Act requiring domestic processing and reduction of China dependency; its Hungary facility qualifies, and it secured a lithium hydroxide order from European clients, making it a direct beneficiary.

Tesla and Hyundai Motor are entering the monetization phase for humanoid robots; Tesla Optimus 3rd gen will start mass production in August, and Hyundai's Atlas is testing at Georgia plant, providing visible cash generation from robot operations.