"I think the sell off in gold is probably done." Sellers outlines a scenario analysis: a war solution/reopening of Hormuz brings down the dollar and revives demand for gold, while a continued closure is ultimately negative for gold but finds support. The recent sell-off was driven by the strong dollar and higher Treasury yields from inflation fears. Sellers argues that in most forward-looking scenarios, gold finds a floor or a catalyst for recovery, either from a positive geopolitical resolution or its traditional haven status in a protracted crisis. The current price level presents a potential inflection point. The downside from current levels is seen as limited, while multiple paths exist for gold to move higher, making it an asset to monitor closely. A prolonged crisis that continues to drive US dollar strength and bond yield increases more than it drives haven demand, keeping gold suppressed.