Wayne Gordon 5.0 2 ideas

1. FACT: "We are buyers of the gold dip... I also like gold equities in that context. Gold miners have come under material pressure... almost every Middle Eastern crisis we have seen in history, gold has spiked in the first few days and then has come under pressure... However, gold does start to recover once central banks begin to react to the impact on global growth." 2. BRIDGE: Geopolitical shocks initially cause a spike in gold, followed by a dollar-driven selloff as rate hike fears emerge. However, the ultimate central bank pivot to protect domestic growth from the energy shock provides a strong secondary tailwind for gold and heavily discounted gold miners. 3. VERDICT: LONG. The current dip in gold and gold equities presents a historical buying opportunity based on the established playbook for Middle Eastern energy crises. 4. KEY RISK: Central banks prioritize inflation over growth for longer than expected, keeping real rates high and the USD exceptionally strong, suppressing gold prices.