The author expects PPI and CPI to come in hot on Thursday and Friday, and cites a statement that the war won't end until after the midterms, concluding the market is mega-fucked for the rest of the week. The causal mechanism is inflation data pressuring equities while geopolitical conflict persists. Main risk is that inflation prints come in cooler than expected.
The author expects oil to rally strongly ('shrek') as the war continues past the midterms, with hot inflation data adding to the move. The catalyst is the ongoing conflict and this week's PPI/CPI prints. Main risk is a sudden de-escalation or weak inflation data.