u/Top-Sir-1215

Author states “my only good stock that I feel confident in is all state” – implying positive personal experience with the holding. In a market full of traps, a single name that has held up suggests defensive or resilient characteristics (insurance sector typically stable). Author’s expressed confidence, while anecdotal, points to ALL as a perceived safe haven in a risky environment. Author admits even ALL could be “rugpulled”; no fundamental analysis provided; tariff/oil spillover could hit insurance claims or investment portfolio.

Author questions whether TSM is overvalued, suggesting it could rise 20% in a year and continue growing over decades. This implies that holding TSM long-term aligns with a buy-and-hold strategy, where perceived overvaluation may not hinder future returns if the business remains sound. The trade rationale is to maintain a long position in TSM for long-term appreciation, avoiding premature selling based on market timing fears. TSM's business could fail or fundamentals deteriorate, making long-term growth unsustainable. Diversification is recommended to mitigate such risks.

Michael Burry recently bought PayPal at $49, and the author currently holds a position in the stock. Despite skepticism regarding Burry's sudden reversal and market manipulation, the author believes the underlying business is stable enough to generate acceptable returns. Maintain a modest long position in PYPL, expecting it to "do fine," but avoid over-allocating capital at current levels. The stock may actually be a value trap as originally claimed; lack of fundamental improvement between $39 and $49.