u/TabMan69

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Apr 2026
Calls 1 2 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
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90d 1
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ADBE long +6.4%
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ADBE ×2
Recent Calls
ADBE long 2 months ago
Win Rate 100% Long 1 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 100%
90d —
Average Return +6.4% Long Return +6.4% Short Return -
Average Return
7d -1.7%
30d +3.9%
90d —
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ADBE Adobe Inc. Adobe Inc.
Long
Apr 01
$241.37
+6.4%
Reported financials (EPS beat, 12.8% RPO growth, 75% QoQ Firefly ARR growth) contradict the bearish narrative of AI displacement causing revenue decline. The market is mispricing ADBE due to cohort drag, an AI displacement narrative, and CEO transition uncertainty, creating a valuation opportunity. ARPU expansion from Firefly credit consumption can outpace seat erosion, leading to net revenue growth. The stock's decline post-earning is an overreaction. Failure to meet the author's Q2 conditions (RPO growth ≥10% YoY, Firefly ARR QoQ growth ≥30%); a faster-than-modeled seat decline; execution risk during CEO transition.
Reported financials (EPS beat, 12.8% RPO growth, 75% QoQ Firefly ARR growth) contradict the bearish narrative of AI displacement causing revenue decline. The market is mispricing ADBE due to cohort drag, an AI displacement narrative, and CEO transition uncertainty, creating a valuation opportunity. ARPU expansion from Firefly credit consumption can outpace seat erosion, leading to net revenue growth. The stock's decline post-earning is an overreaction. Failure to meet the author's Q2 conditions (RPO growth ≥10% YoY, Firefly ARR QoQ growth ≥30%); a faster-than-modeled seat decline; execution risk during CEO transition.
AI/Semi
REDDIT
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