u/shaggy98
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
May 12
$1019.63
+4.4%
COST has P/E 53 and forward P/E 45, making it one of the most expensive staples. High valuation implies extreme growth expectations that COST’s mature membership model may not deliver, especially with cost inflation. Short COST on valuation reversion risk. Strong same-store sales and member loyalty could sustain premium.
COST has P/E 53 and forward P/E 45, making it one of the most expensive staples. High valuation implies extreme growth expectations that COST’s mature membership model may not deliver, especially with cost inflation. Short COST on valuation reversion risk. Strong same-store sales and member loyalty could sustain premium.
Consumer
Short
May 12
$80.02
+1.6%
KO’s P/E 25 and forward P/E 23 are above its 10-year average of ~22. A mature beverage company with no growth catalyst at 23x forward earnings leaves little upside; inflation and commodity costs (aluminum, sugar) could hurt. Short KO on valuation and cost headwinds. Currency tailwinds and brand moat could sustain premium.
KO’s P/E 25 and forward P/E 23 are above its 10-year average of ~22. A mature beverage company with no growth catalyst at 23x forward earnings leaves little upside; inflation and commodity costs (aluminum, sugar) could hurt. Short KO on valuation and cost headwinds. Currency tailwinds and brand moat could sustain premium.
Consumer
Short
May 12
$143.78
+2.5%
PG trades at P/E 21 and forward P/E 20, less extreme than WMT/COST but still above its historical average of ~18. A 20x P/E on a low-growth defensives offers limited upside, and high oil/input costs could erode margins. Mildly short PG as a relatively less overvalued but still unattractive staple. Brand pricing power and dividend safety may support valuation.
PG trades at P/E 21 and forward P/E 20, less extreme than WMT/COST but still above its historical average of ~18. A 20x P/E on a low-growth defensives offers limited upside, and high oil/input costs could erode margins. Mildly short PG as a relatively less overvalued but still unattractive staple. Brand pricing power and dividend safety may support valuation.
Consumer
Short
May 12
$129.85
+9.0%
WMT trades at P/E 48 and forward P/E 40, far above historical norms and even above many growth tech stocks. Such extreme valuation in a mature, low-growth business leaves little margin of safety; any inflation or oil headwind could compress multiples. Short WMT as an overvalued staple likely to revert toward fairer valuation. Defensive buying could persist if recession fears intensify; WMT’s retail strength may cushion downside.
WMT trades at P/E 48 and forward P/E 40, far above historical norms and even above many growth tech stocks. Such extreme valuation in a mature, low-growth business leaves little margin of safety; any inflation or oil headwind could compress multiples. Short WMT as an overvalued staple likely to revert toward fairer valuation. Defensive buying could persist if recession fears intensify; WMT’s retail strength may cushion downside.
Consumer
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