u

u/Progress_8 5.0 7 ideas

Reddit r/investing
After 1 day
N/A
7/15 min ideas
After 1 week
N/A
7/15 min ideas
After 1 month
N/A
5/15 min ideas
2 winning  /  3 losing  ·  5 positions (30d)
Net: +5.1%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
USO SHORT $114.15 Mar 23
SPY LONG $659.45 Mar 23
By sector
ETF
7 ideas +5.1%
Top tickers (by frequency)
SPY 2 ideas
100% W +1.6%
USO 2 ideas
100% W +55.5%
GLD 1 ideas
0% W -11.1%
TLT 1 ideas
0% W -0.8%
SLV 1 ideas
0% W -19.8%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG +55.5%
Perpetual swap futures for oil on a 24/7 crypto exchange rose 5% over the weekend due to escalating tensions with Iran. ...
Mar 01
SPY LONG +1.6%
Inflation is holding steady at a lower level (2.4%), and the author points to weak jobs data as a sign of a slowing econ...
Mar 11
TLT LONG -0.8%
February CPI data was in-line with expectations (2.4% headline, 2.5% core), and last month's jobs data "wildly missed ex...
Mar 11
Worst calls
SLV LONG -19.8%
Silver perpetual swap futures on Hyperliquid rose 2% over the weekend. Similar to gold, the rise in silver reflects a de...
Mar 01
GLD LONG -11.1%
Gold perpetual swap futures on Hyperliquid rose 1.3% over the weekend amid rising geopolitical tensions. This price acti...
Mar 01
TLT LONG -0.8%
February CPI data was in-line with expectations (2.4% headline, 2.5% core), and last month's jobs data "wildly missed ex...
Mar 11
Brent crude has fallen 13% to $96 a barrel following the postponement of US strikes on Iranian power plants. The removal of immediate military threats to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure rapidly deflates the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil. Short oil/energy markets as de-escalation eases supply disruption fears. Iranian media denies the talks; if the de-escalation is a bluff, oil will violently spike back up.
USO HIGH Mar 23, 11:44
Key Points
['Strikes on Iranian power plants postponed.', 'Brent crude dropped 13% immediately.', 'Geopolitical risk premium is deflating.', 'Highly sensitive to ongoing news cycle.']
● Reddit — r/investing ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 23, 2026 at 11:44
● u/Progress_8
Reddit r/investing
The broader stock market "kicked into higher gear" and the FTSE 100 reversed a 2% loss to trade up 0.5%. Easing geopolitical tensions and lower energy costs provide a dual tailwind for broader equities, triggering a relief rally. Long broad market indices to capture the relief rally from avoided conflict. The talks are unconfirmed by Iran, meaning the rally could be built on false premises and reverse sharply.
SPY HIGH Mar 23, 11:44
Key Points
['Broad markets rallying on peace talk news.', 'Lower oil prices act as a tax cut for consumers.', 'Relief rally vulnerable to headline risk.']
● Reddit — r/investing ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 23, 2026 at 11:44
● u/Progress_8
Reddit r/investing
February CPI data was in-line with expectations (2.4% headline, 2.5% core), and last month's jobs data "wildly missed expectations." This combination of moderating inflation and a weakening labor market gives the Federal Reserve justification to cut interest rates. The author suggests cuts could be "sooner and more aggressive" than the market's current pricing. The expectation of imminent and potentially aggressive Fed rate cuts will increase the value of long-duration Treasury bonds, as bond prices rise when yields fall. Inflation could re-accelerate due to the "recent war" or other factors, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. The job market could rebound, removing the impetus for cuts.
TLT HIGH Mar 11, 13:54
Key Points
['CPI data is in-line, not accelerating.', 'Recent jobs data was very weak.', 'Fed has room to decrease interest rates.', 'Author implies cuts could be sooner/more aggressive.']
● Reddit — r/investing ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 11, 2026 at 13:54
● u/Progress_8
Reddit r/investing
Inflation is holding steady at a lower level (2.4%), and the author points to weak jobs data as a sign of a slowing economy. The author explicitly states that this data "leaves the Fed some room to decrease future interest rates." Lower interest rates are typically a powerful tailwind for equity markets, as they reduce borrowing costs for companies and make stocks more attractive relative to bonds. The prospect of Fed rate cuts, potentially starting as early as September or even sooner, creates a bullish environment for the broader stock market. If the "recent war" causes an inflation spike, the Fed may delay or reverse its dovish pivot. A severe economic downturn (hard landing) could hurt corporate earnings more than rate cuts help stock prices.
SPY HIGH Mar 11, 13:54
Key Points
['Inflation is under control, meeting expectations.', 'Weak jobs data supports a more dovish Fed.', 'Fed rate cuts are anticipated this year.', 'Lower rates are generally positive for equities.']
● Reddit — r/investing ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 11, 2026 at 13:54
● u/Progress_8
Reddit r/investing
Gold perpetual swap futures on Hyperliquid rose 1.3% over the weekend amid rising geopolitical tensions. This price action indicates a classic flight-to-safety move by traders who are active 24/7. This sentiment is likely to carry over into the traditional markets when they open. The pre-market rally in gold perpetuals suggests that safe-haven assets like gold (and the GLD ETF) will see increased demand at the market open on Monday. A sudden de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could reverse the flight-to-safety trade. The move might already be priced in by the time markets open, leading to a "sell the news" event.
GLD HIGH Mar 01, 14:29
TLDR
=== SUMMARY === - The post highlights how traders are using 24/7 crypto-based perpetual futures markets (specifically Hyperliquid) to hedge against geopolitical risks, in this case, escalating tensions with Iran, outside of traditional market hours. - The author observes that prices for oil, gold, and silver perpetuals are rising on these platforms, suggesting a flight to safety and anticipation of market moves when traditional exchanges open. - The author posits that the tokenization of traditional assets on blockchains could lead to more widespread 24/7 trading in the future. - Quality assessment: This is a news-based observation, not deep due diligence (DD). It points to a market trend and sentiment but is speculative regarding the impact on Monday's open. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === USO - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Progress_8 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Perpetual swap futures for oil on a 24/7 crypto exchange rose 5% over the weekend due to escalating tensions with Iran. 2. THE BRIDGE: This weekend trading activity acts as a leading indicator, suggesting that when traditional markets open, there will be strong buying pressure on oil as traders hedge geopolitical risk. 3. THE VERDICT: The significant pre-market rally in oil perpetuals signals a likely gap up in oil prices and related assets like USO on Monday morning. 4. RISKS: The geopolitical situation could de-escalate before markets open, causing the risk premium to evaporate. The crypto-based perpetual market may not be a reliable indicator for the broader traditional markets. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - Oil perpetuals up 5% on Hyperliquid over the weekend. - Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran. - Suggests a flight to safety and a risk-on move for oil. - Acts as a potential leading indicator for Monday's open. GLD - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Progress_8 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Gold perpetual swap futures on Hyperliquid ro
Key Points
['Gold perpetuals up 1.3% on a 24/7 trading venue.', 'Classic flight-to-safety response to geopolitical risk.', 'Indicates bullish sentiment for gold ahead of market open.', "Weekend trading may foreshadow Monday's price action."]
● Reddit — r/stocks ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 01, 2026 at 14:29
● u/Progress_8
Reddit r/stocks
Silver perpetual swap futures on Hyperliquid rose 2% over the weekend. Similar to gold, the rise in silver reflects a demand for precious metals as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and potential inflation from rising energy costs. The rally in silver perpetuals suggests that silver and related ETFs like SLV are likely to open higher on Monday as the flight-to-safety trade materializes in traditional markets. Silver can be more volatile than gold; a broader market risk-off move could negatively impact its industrial demand component, muting the safe-haven rally. The geopolitical situation could improve before the open.
SLV HIGH Mar 01, 14:29
TLDR
=== SUMMARY === - The post highlights how traders are using 24/7 crypto-based perpetual futures markets (specifically Hyperliquid) to hedge against geopolitical risks, in this case, escalating tensions with Iran, outside of traditional market hours. - The author observes that prices for oil, gold, and silver perpetuals are rising on these platforms, suggesting a flight to safety and anticipation of market moves when traditional exchanges open. - The author posits that the tokenization of traditional assets on blockchains could lead to more widespread 24/7 trading in the future. - Quality assessment: This is a news-based observation, not deep due diligence (DD). It points to a market trend and sentiment but is speculative regarding the impact on Monday's open. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === USO - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Progress_8 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Perpetual swap futures for oil on a 24/7 crypto exchange rose 5% over the weekend due to escalating tensions with Iran. 2. THE BRIDGE: This weekend trading activity acts as a leading indicator, suggesting that when traditional markets open, there will be strong buying pressure on oil as traders hedge geopolitical risk. 3. THE VERDICT: The significant pre-market rally in oil perpetuals signals a likely gap up in oil prices and related assets like USO on Monday morning. 4. RISKS: The geopolitical situation could de-escalate before markets open, causing the risk premium to evaporate. The crypto-based perpetual market may not be a reliable indicator for the broader traditional markets. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - Oil perpetuals up 5% on Hyperliquid over the weekend. - Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran. - Suggests a flight to safety and a risk-on move for oil. - Acts as a potential leading indicator for Monday's open. GLD - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Progress_8 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Gold perpetual swap futures on Hyperliquid ro
Key Points
['Silver perpetuals rallied 2% over the weekend.', 'Part of a broader move into precious metals for safety.', "Suggests positive momentum for silver at Monday's open."]
● Reddit — r/stocks ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 01, 2026 at 14:29
● u/Progress_8
Reddit r/stocks
Perpetual swap futures for oil on a 24/7 crypto exchange rose 5% over the weekend due to escalating tensions with Iran. This weekend trading activity acts as a leading indicator, suggesting that when traditional markets open, there will be strong buying pressure on oil as traders hedge geopolitical risk. The significant pre-market rally in oil perpetuals signals a likely gap up in oil prices and related assets like USO on Monday morning. The geopolitical situation could de-escalate before markets open, causing the risk premium to evaporate. The crypto-based perpetual market may not be a reliable indicator for the broader traditional markets.
USO HIGH Mar 01, 14:29
TLDR
=== SUMMARY === - The post highlights how traders are using 24/7 crypto-based perpetual futures markets (specifically Hyperliquid) to hedge against geopolitical risks, in this case, escalating tensions with Iran, outside of traditional market hours. - The author observes that prices for oil, gold, and silver perpetuals are rising on these platforms, suggesting a flight to safety and anticipation of market moves when traditional exchanges open. - The author posits that the tokenization of traditional assets on blockchains could lead to more widespread 24/7 trading in the future. - Quality assessment: This is a news-based observation, not deep due diligence (DD). It points to a market trend and sentiment but is speculative regarding the impact on Monday's open. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === USO - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Progress_8 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Perpetual swap futures for oil on a 24/7 crypto exchange rose 5% over the weekend due to escalating tensions with Iran. 2. THE BRIDGE: This weekend trading activity acts as a leading indicator, suggesting that when traditional markets open, there will be strong buying pressure on oil as traders hedge geopolitical risk. 3. THE VERDICT: The significant pre-market rally in oil perpetuals signals a likely gap up in oil prices and related assets like USO on Monday morning. 4. RISKS: The geopolitical situation could de-escalate before markets open, causing the risk premium to evaporate. The crypto-based perpetual market may not be a reliable indicator for the broader traditional markets. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - Oil perpetuals up 5% on Hyperliquid over the weekend. - Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran. - Suggests a flight to safety and a risk-on move for oil. - Acts as a potential leading indicator for Monday's open. GLD - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Progress_8 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Gold perpetual swap futures on Hyperliquid ro
Key Points
['Oil perpetuals up 5% on Hyperliquid over the weekend.', 'Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran.', 'Suggests a flight to safety and a risk-on move for oil.', "Acts as a potential leading indicator for Monday's open."]
● Reddit — r/stocks ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 01, 2026 at 14:29
● u/Progress_8
Reddit r/stocks
u/Progress_8 (Reddit r/investing) | 7 trade ideas tracked | SPY, USO, GLD, TLT, SLV | Reddit | Buzzberg