u/nop--sled

Apollo's President cautioned about heightened risks of a US recession from a prolonged conflict. A recession would negatively impact the broad equity market. Stagflationary risk (lower growth, higher inflation) is a bearish macro environment for stocks. Conflict resolves quickly; resilient consumer and economy avoid recession.

Warnings of slowing growth/hit to growth and consumer distress could shift capital to safe-haven assets. In a risk-off environment fearing recession, long-duration Treasuries (TLT) could see inflows. The flight-to-safety trade is a potential hedge against the described economic risks. Persistently high inflation could force Fed to hold rates high, capping bond prices.

Blackrock's Kapito warns oil may still spike to $150 a barrel due to disrupted supply chains from the Iran war. This creates a direct opportunity to go long oil. Geopolitical conflict and supply chain issues are a catalyst for higher oil prices. Swift end to conflict; faster-than-expected supply chain recovery; demand destruction.