u/jlomohocob

The author holds 50,000 BORR shares at $4.27 and argues $2.3bn of fixed net debt sits under a 29-rig modern jack-up fleet, so any dayrate/fleet re-rating is amplified several times into the equity — a leveraged call option on the shallow-water cycle rather than a book-value play (stock trades ~1.5x the $3.12/share book). Supporting evidence cited: Q2 2026's $241m loss was 73% a refinancing charge with 98.4% technical utilization, maturities were pushed out to 2032/2034, 2026 coverage is 73% at ~$134k/day, and a board insider bought after the selloff. The stated catalyst is Q3 results on 18 Nov 2026, where management promised Adjusted EBITDA would 'improve significantly' (toward $90-110m), with the demand story pointed at 2027-28. Main stated risks: Altman Z-Score of 0.37, ~$200m+/yr interest plus ~$104m/yr amortisation starting July 2027, negative Q2 operating cash flow, rigs carried above recent transaction comps, and ''the downside bar is not decoration — at $60m/rig the equity is gone.''