u/Aulipe

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Apr 2026
Calls 1 1 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
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NKE short +5.4%
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NKE ×1
Recent Calls
NKE short 1 month ago
Win Rate 100% Long 0 Short 1
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7d 100%
30d 100%
90d —
Average Return +5.4% Long Return - Short Return +5.4%
Average Return
7d +2.4%
30d +4.4%
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NKE NIKE, Inc. NIKE, Inc.
Short
Apr 20
$46.24
+5.4%
A strict DCF model, using a 10.63% WACC and a recovery growth rate, yields an intrinsic value of $12.16 per share, ~74% below the current market price. This massive valuation gap suggests the market is pricing in a flawless and rapid turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill, which the author's analysis deems mathematically unjustifiable. The stock is a potential value trap (overvalued based on nostalgia, not fundamentals), creating an opportunity to short or avoid. The new CEO executes a turnaround faster/better than modeled; the author's WACC or growth assumptions are too severe; brand strength drives higher sustainable margins than projected.
A strict DCF model, using a 10.63% WACC and a recovery growth rate, yields an intrinsic value of $12.16 per share, ~74% below the current market price. This massive valuation gap suggests the market is pricing in a flawless and rapid turnaround under new CEO Elliott Hill, which the author's analysis deems mathematically unjustifiable. The stock is a potential value trap (overvalued based on nostalgia, not fundamentals), creating an opportunity to short or avoid. The new CEO executes a turnaround faster/better than modeled; the author's WACC or growth assumptions are too severe; brand strength drives higher sustainable margins than projected.
Consumer
REDDIT
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