u/applepick-fruitlick

The author argues OneSpan's hardware segment is dying (-16% revenue yoy, ~16% of revenue) while its cybersecurity software side grows ARR +11% and serves 60 of the world's 100 largest banks with high switching friction. A DCF assuming the hardware side vanishes tomorrow and immediate decay to 2% terminal growth at a 10% discount rate yields intrinsic value of $15.67 versus an $11.81 share price. The author attributes the gap to shrinking hardware dragging headline numbers, and cites free optionality from remaining hardware revenue, the nok nok and Build38 acquisitions, and true ARR of 11% versus the 2% modeled. At a PE of 8 with zero debt, the author calls it an information arbitrage fat pitch.