u/Alicyclobacillus

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Jun 2026
Calls
3
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+30.6%
Calls 3 1 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 3
Best Calls
SAP Long +31.3%
NOW Long +31.1%
MSFT Long +29.4%
Worst Calls
No live losers yet
Most Mentioned
MSFT ×1
SAP ×1
NOW ×1
Recent Calls
SAP Long 1 month ago
NOW Long 1 month ago
MSFT Long 1 month ago
Win Rate 100% Long 3 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 33%
30d 100%
90d
Average Return +30.6% Long Return +30.6% Short Return -
Average Return
7d +0.6%
30d +6.1%
90d
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Result
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jun 19
$379.40
+29.4%
Top comment explicitly recommends buying MSFT, NOW, SAP and holding for 1–2 years for happiness (i.e., positive returns). Multiple other comments reinforce that AI benefits incumbent software firms. Current SaaS selloff is driven by AI fear and private credit contagion, not fundamentals. Incumbents like MSFT have the resources and customer relationships to integrate AI and expand margins. Long MSFT as a high-quality incumbent that will monetize AI rather than be disrupted. The market is pricing in a worst-case scenario that is unlikely to materialize. If AI evolves to a point where enterprise clients switch to pure-AI-native platforms, or if a deep recession hits enterprise software spending, MSFT could underperform.
Top comment explicitly recommends buying MSFT, NOW, SAP and holding for 1–2 years for happiness (i.e., positive returns). Multiple other comments reinforce that AI benefits incumbent software firms. Current SaaS selloff is driven by AI fear and private credit contagion, not fundamentals. Incumbents like MSFT have the resources and customer relationships to integrate AI and expand margins. Long MSFT as a high-quality incumbent that will monetize AI rather than be disrupted. The market is pricing in a worst-case scenario that is unlikely to materialize. If AI evolves to a point where enterprise clients switch to pure-AI-native platforms, or if a deep recession hits enterprise software spending, MSFT could underperform.
Hyperscalers
Long
Jun 19
$95.04
+31.1%
ServiceNow (NOW) is explicitly named alongside MSFT and SAP in the top comment’s “buy and hold” advice. NOW is a workflow automation leader; AI will enhance its platform (e.g., AI-powered ITSM), not replace it. The selloff creates a valuation entry point. Long NOW as a pure-play SaaS that is already embedding generative AI into its products, likely to see accelerating adoption. Competition from Microsoft and Salesforce in the workflow space; macro slowdown delaying IT spending.
ServiceNow (NOW) is explicitly named alongside MSFT and SAP in the top comment’s “buy and hold” advice. NOW is a workflow automation leader; AI will enhance its platform (e.g., AI-powered ITSM), not replace it. The selloff creates a valuation entry point. Long NOW as a pure-play SaaS that is already embedding generative AI into its products, likely to see accelerating adoption. Competition from Microsoft and Salesforce in the workflow space; macro slowdown delaying IT spending.
AI Software
Long
Jun 19
$155.22
+31.3%
SAP is the third name in the top comment’s “buy and close the app” recommendation. SAP’s legacy ERP moat is massive, and its cloud transition (S/4HANA, Business AI) is picking up. The market underestimates how sticky enterprise ERP systems are. Long SAP as a beneficiary of AI-driven business process optimization, with a strong recurring revenue base and global footprint. Slow cloud migration pace, currency headwinds, or regulatory issues in Europe.
SAP is the third name in the top comment’s “buy and close the app” recommendation. SAP’s legacy ERP moat is massive, and its cloud transition (S/4HANA, Business AI) is picking up. The market underestimates how sticky enterprise ERP systems are. Long SAP as a beneficiary of AI-driven business process optimization, with a strong recurring revenue base and global footprint. Slow cloud migration pace, currency headwinds, or regulatory issues in Europe.
AI Software
Showing 3 of 3 calls · sorted by mentions

u/Alicyclobacillus has 3 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 3 tickers since June 2026. Most covered: MSFT, SAP, NOW.