"The bigger risk out of all of this is we may have a record high global inflation... there will have to be either a cessation of cuts in interest rates or a reverse of the cuts." The market is currently pricing in rate cuts or stability. A supply-side energy shock (Oil/Gas) forces inflation up. Central banks cannot cut rates into rising inflation. Bond yields must rise (prices fall) to reflect the "higher for longer" reality. SHORT. Bonds are mispriced if inflation spikes back to record highs. The war causes a deflationary demand crash (recession) rather than inflationary supply shock.