Tobias Carlisle 2.4 2 ideas

The Equal Weight S&P 500 has historically outperformed the Market Cap Weighted S&P 500 over the long run, but has significantly lagged recently due to the concentration of returns in the "Mag 7." Markets are cyclical; if the "rolling mania" in large-cap tech fades, capital will rotate back into the broader market (small/mid-caps and value), causing Equal Weight indices to outperform the top-heavy SPY. LONG (Relative to SPY). Continued momentum in mega-cap tech; structural shift favoring "winner-take-all" tech monopolies.

The stock has drawn down significantly (cited as falling from ~$80 to ~$17), trading at ~9x EV/EBITDA and an 11% Free Cash Flow yield, with an 80% ROIC due to its asset-light, outsourced manufacturing model. The market has likely over-penalized the stock due to GLP-1 weight-loss drug fears or momentum selling. However, the "Premier Protein" brand has strong distribution and sticky demand (protein is essential regardless of weight loss methods), creating a dislocation between price and business quality. LONG (Deep Value). Competition from private labels (e.g., Costco/Kirkland); single-category reliance; potential impact of GLP-1s on consumption habits.