Stephen Torchinsky

The prolonged US naval blockade of Iran will continue to choke off oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening the market and pushing oil prices higher. Iran's storage capacity will fill in 12-22 days, forcing shut-ins, and the lack of ships willing to transit will keep 10 million barrels per day offline.

The end of this would be a major, major thing that would help cool down prices, too, would also be the release of oil from the strategic reserve. The geopolitical risk premium that drove oil to $120 is rapidly unwinding. If a peace deal is reached, SPR barrels enter the market, and the Strait of Hormuz reopens for safe tanker passage, global supply constraints will vanish, forcing crude prices significantly lower. SHORT. The confluence of de-escalation, SPR releases, and restored shipping lanes creates a strong bearish setup for crude oil. The peace deal falls through, Iran escalates attacks on tankers, or the G-7 decides against an SPR release, causing the geopolitical risk premium to spike again.