Oil plunged 16% on ceasefire news but remains at ~$95/bbl, well above pre-war levels. Physical reopening of Strait of Hormuz is logistically challenging and may only reach 20-50% of prior traffic. Significant energy infrastructure damage (e.g., Qatari LNG facilities) will take years to repair. The market is pricing in a permanent geopolitical risk premium. Even with a ceasefire, the physical disruption and heightened awareness of the Strait's vulnerability prevent a return to pre-conflict price equilibrium ($60-$70/bbl). The asset carries elevated risk and limited near-term upside back to previous highs, while the baseline price has been structurally raised. "AVOID" reflects an unattractive risk/reward with high volatility. The ceasefire collapses, leading to a rapid return to $110+ prices. Alternatively, a smoother-than-expected reopening and faster infrastructure repair could allow prices to fall further.