Sir Lawrence Freedman 5.0 18 ideas

The problem is in doing things solely from the air is that you set things in motion, but you can't control how they end up... the aftermath of this is going to be a lot of rethinking about how in the allies perspective they deal with the U.S. The US strategy relies entirely on standoff munitions, missile strikes, and air power rather than ground troops. This rapidly depletes stockpiles of precision-guided munitions and interceptors. Furthermore, as allies realize the US cannot unilaterally protect global trade routes or consult them on major military actions, they will be forced to increase their own sovereign defense spending. US defense primes that manufacture aerospace systems and missiles will see sustained, multi-year order backlogs from both the Pentagon and foreign military sales. LONG major US defense contractors specializing in aerospace and missile systems. US congressional budget gridlock delaying defense appropriations, or supply chain bottlenecks preventing primes from scaling production to meet demand.

Iran might be able to do, which is basically make it very difficult to move shipping in and around the Gulf and to threaten installations within the main Gulf states of Emiratis, the Saudis at all. The Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are critical choke points for global energy markets. With shipping lanes effectively closed due to danger and direct threats to Saudi/Emirati infrastructure, global oil supply faces a severe bottleneck. Western oil majors with significant production outside the Middle East (such as the US Permian Basin or offshore Guyana) will benefit massively from the resulting spike in crude prices without facing the localized geopolitical risk to their own infrastructure. LONG US-based oil majors with heavy domestic and non-Middle Eastern upstream exposure. Coordinated global Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, demand destruction from a resulting global recession, or a sudden diplomatic de-escalation.

A good example of this is the promise to provide naval escorts to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which the president made, but which can't be fulfilled because... it's too dangerous for them to travel themselves. If the US Navy cannot safely escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, commercial shipping and oil tankers must completely reroute away from the region. Rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope or other alternative paths significantly increases voyage times. This absorbs global fleet capacity, creating an artificial shortage of available ships and driving freight and charter day-rates exponentially higher. LONG global shipping and tanker equities that operate on spot rates. A ceasefire or military breakthrough that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, which would immediately collapse the premium on freight rates.

"A good example of this is the promise to provide naval escorts to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which the president made, but which can't be fulfilled because the ships are... too dangerous for them to travel themselves." The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, handling roughly 20% of global oil consumption. If the strait is entirely impassable and even US naval escorts cannot operate safely, a massive supply shock is guaranteed. This will immediately spike the underlying price of crude oil and drive massive margin expansion for domestic US oil producers who are insulated from Middle Eastern transit risks. LONG crude oil and domestic US energy producers as the market prices in a severe, sustained disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows. The US and its allies find a rapid diplomatic off-ramp, or OPEC+ members successfully reroute oil through alternative overland pipelines, mitigating the supply shock.

"They can degrade the missile capabilities, production of Iran. They've taken out an awful lot of its navy... The problem is in doing things solely from the air is that you set things in motion, but you can't control how they end up." The US strategy relies entirely on air superiority and standoff munitions rather than deploying ground troops. A prolonged air-only campaign against a massive country (90 million people) with heavily entrenched proxy forces (Hezbollah) requires a continuous, massive expenditure of precision-guided munitions, interceptors, and aerospace assets. Defense contractors will receive accelerated orders to replenish depleted US and Israeli stockpiles. LONG prime defense and aerospace contractors who manufacture the missiles, air defense systems, and munitions required for a sustained, air-centric proxy war. A sudden de-escalation of the conflict or US congressional gridlock that delays emergency defense appropriations.