Simon Marks 2.7 2 ideas

"We've also seen the Tigrayans now... joined by Eritrea... supporting each other." Eritrea occupies a strategic coastline along the Red Sea (a critical global shipping choke point). Conflict involving Eritrea and Ethiopia often spills over into regional instability. Any threat to Red Sea security generally leads to a risk premium in oil and shipping rates. LONG oil as a geopolitical hedge. The conflict remains contained inland and does not impact Red Sea logistics.

"His [Abiy Ahmed's] opponents have close ties with the likes of Egypt, which is obviously keen to set Ethiopia back because of its control of Nile waters and this massive mega dam." Egypt is explicitly named as a potential proxy participant to destabilize Ethiopia over water rights. If Egypt becomes materially involved in a Horn of Africa conflict, it increases fiscal strain and geopolitical risk premiums for Egyptian assets, potentially hurting tourism and foreign investment. WATCH Egyptian equities for downside volatility if rhetoric escalates. Egypt may limit involvement to diplomatic pressure rather than material support, minimizing economic impact.