Santiago R. Santos 4.5 28 ideas

Santi states he has a position in Google, finds it comfortable to own for multi-year periods because "it's a monopoly" and he doesn't think they will be unseated. He is accumulating names on his shopping list that are down significantly, focusing on long-term secular tailwinds. Google fits this thesis as a high-conviction, durable business. LONG. He is explicitly buying and holding Google as a core, long-term position based on its dominant market position and discounted price. Prolonged macro downturn impacting all equities; regulatory action against monopolies.

Santi names ServiceNow as a specific position he holds, citing a disconnect where some enterprise software/SaaS names are trading at compelling multiples. His background as an enterprise software analyst informs this view. He is accumulating equities he wants to hold long-term as they trade down. WATCH. He holds a position and finds the valuation compelling, but it is presented as part of a broader basket of opportunities rather than a standalone high-conviction call. Enterprise IT spending contraction in a recession; competition in the SaaS space.

Santi describes a "crypto VC mass extinction event," where too much capital chased a not-that-big space, hit rates are falling, and "only a few funds will survive." The causal chain is that the easy money era in crypto venture is over, returns are collapsing, and the industry must consolidate. This implies most venture funds (a subset of Finance) are unattractive and will fail. AVOID. The implication is that broad exposure to the crypto venture capital sector carries high risk of failure and capital impairment; capital should flow only to the proven top performers. A sudden new bull market in crypto could temporarily resurrect fundraising and returns, delaying consolidation.

Better, a traditional mortgage originator, is using a credit facility from Sky (a crypto credit protocol) to lower its cost of capital, aiming to squeeze out ~100 basis points. This demonstrates a real-world, non-crypto company using on-chain capital markets to supplement its traditional financing. The value proposition is lower cost and efficiency for the borrower, with no direct change for the end customer. Sky's model is gaining traction with legitimate financial institutions, showcasing a pragmatic path for DeFi to service traditional finance (TradFi) and capture value from real economic activity. Governance risk within the DeFi protocol. Scaling this model requires convincing more traditional companies to take on the operational and perceived risk of using on-chain capital.

Hyperliquid generated $140M in revenue over the last 90 days, leads in on-chain perpetual markets, and recently partnered with S&P to license S&P 500 perpetuals. High revenue and strategic partnerships indicate strong product-market fit, growth in on-chain derivatives, and potential to capture institutional interest as seen with S&P's involvement. Positive outlook due to dominance in a high-growth niche, but regulatory risks and competition warrant monitoring rather than immediate action. Regulatory challenges could hinder expansion, and fee compression or increased competition (e.g., from other chains launching perps) may impact revenue growth.

Aave is one of the only DAOs that has figured out how to make this work, with revenue going to the DAO, and it benefits from being a permissionless protocol that can operate across jurisdictions as a global money market layer. While many sub-scale DeFi apps will need to convert to equity to survive, base-layer financial protocols like Aave actually benefit from the token/DAO model. It allows them to bypass traditional corporate regulatory bottlenecks and scale globally as a monopolistic, borderless infrastructure layer. LONG. Aave is successfully executing the DAO model with real revenue accrual, giving it a unique moat against traditional fintechs. Regulatory crackdowns on permissionless money markets or smart contract vulnerabilities could impair the protocol.

Across Protocol posted a temperature check proposal exploring the move from a DAO to a US C-Corp where token holders could exchange tokens for equity at a 1:1 ratio or redeem at a 25% premium. The market fundamentally values the cash flows and M&A potential of a traditional equity structure higher than a governance token. This creates a direct arbitrage opportunity and sets a precedent for repricing undervalued DeFi tokens that choose to privatize. LONG. The explicit buyout premium and the structural shift to a value-accruing equity model provide a hard floor and upside catalyst for the asset. The DAO vote could fail, or regulatory hurdles regarding KYC and securities conversion could stall the transition.

Robinhood behaves better, has a more interesting customer acquisition funnel, and is doing interesting things around capturing the customer lifecycle from their titanium card to IPO access. As the regulatory environment normalizes, retail users will prefer all-in-one financial super-apps over pure-play crypto exchanges. Robinhood's superior product development and broader suite of traditional financial services give it a structural advantage in acquiring and retaining retail capital. LONG. Robinhood's product velocity and diversified revenue streams make it a safer and faster-growing bet for retail financial dominance. A severe downturn in retail trading volumes across both equities and crypto would disproportionately hurt their transaction-based revenue.

Santiago discusses the "compute, intelligence, energy flywheel" and states that the "biggest bottleneck is just energy." As software and AI demand grows, the physical constraint is power generation. This implies a structural bull market for energy producers and utilities required to power data centers. LONG Energy and Utilities sectors as the "picks and shovels" for the AI boom. Regulatory caps on energy consumption for data centers; rapid advancements in chip efficiency reducing power needs.

Santiago argues that Solana (SOL) and other L1s have been "overly punished" and that crypto demand is still trending "up and to the right." While acknowledging many tokens aren't investable, the sell-off in major L1s like Solana is viewed as excessive relative to the continued usage and demand growth. LONG Solana (via Grayscale Trust or direct) as a mean-reversion trade. Continued regulatory pressure or a shift in developer activity to other chains.

Santiago highlights that Western Union is up 6% while Solana is down 52% (in the context of their bet). He notes excitement for their upcoming earnings and margin improvements. Legacy fintech companies are integrating stablecoins to improve margins and efficiency. This fundamental improvement makes them "more investable" than speculative tokens that lack cash flow. LONG Western Union as a value play on fintech modernization. Failure to execute on digital transformation; continued decline in traditional remittance volumes.

The OCC released guidance effectively prohibiting stablecoin issuers from passing yield to end customers. The speaker notes, "This is basically just being done to protect the banks... banks are scared shitless." While the speaker views this as "regressive" for innovation, the second-order effect is bullish for incumbent banks. By legally blocking fintechs/stablecoins from offering yield on deposits, the government is enforcing a "regulatory moat" that protects the banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM) and prevents deposit flight to higher-yielding digital alternatives. LONG (Regulatory Capture Play). The banking lobby is successfully neutralizing the fintech threat. The guidance is just a proposal; future legislation could reverse this and allow yield pass-through.

Robinhood is launching a "billion-dollar closed-end fund" (likely an IPO'd vehicle) that holds shares in high-demand private companies like Stripe, SpaceX, and Databricks. Historically, Robinhood struggled to offer private shares due to transfer restrictions (RoFRs) and operational friction (SPVs). By aggregating this into a public closed-end fund, they solve the "access" problem for retail and the "liquidity" problem for employees/founders. This creates a highly differentiated product with a recurring 2% management fee, positioning HOOD as the bridge between retail and private equity. LONG. This is a scalable structural advantage that competitors lack. Volatility in the underlying private marks; potential discount to NAV for the closed-end fund.