Barry Ritholtz

"The US is energy independent... when you look at the household budget, energy as a percentage of that budget in the 70s was 12%. Now energy is something like 7% or 6%." Because the US produces its own energy and consumers are less reliant on it, domestic equities will shrug off Middle East conflict and oil spikes much faster than they did in previous decades. The initial panic selloffs are buying opportunities. LONG SPY because the underlying US economy is structurally protected from overseas energy shocks, allowing the broad market to absorb geopolitical hits. A severe escalation that drags the US military into a prolonged conflict, or oil spiking so high (e.g., well over $100) that it breaks consumer sentiment regardless of the lower budget percentage.