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Richard Saldanha 5.0 2 ideas

Global Equity Portfolio Manager, Aviva Investors
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Saldanha argues equity markets are shifting from a 'de-grossing' phase to a 'de-risking' phase due to the prolonged conflict. In a de-risking phase, the playbook favors traditionally defensive sectors. Consumer staples (a subset of Consumer Non-Durables) are cited as sectors that become more defensive and resilient when investors broadly reduce risk (beta), unlike in the earlier phase where they underperformed. If the conflict persists for months, driving growth concerns and sustained de-risking, staples should outperform more cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary and industrials. The conflict resolves quickly, returning markets to a 'de-grossing' or reflationary phase where cyclicals and growth sectors lead.
XLP Bloomberg Markets Mar 30, 09:42
Global Equity Portfolio...
Saldanha includes healthcare alongside consumer staples as a traditionally defensive sector that should perform better in a market 'de-risking' phase driven by prolonged conflict and growth fears. In a broad equity de-risking (beta trade), capital rotates towards sectors with stable earnings and lower economic sensitivity. Healthcare is explicitly named in this defensive cohort. A protracted Middle East war increasing recession probabilities would likely benefit defensive sectors like healthcare relative to the broader market. A swift end to the conflict that revives growth optimism, causing a rotation back into cyclical sectors.
XLV Bloomberg Markets Mar 30, 09:42
Global Equity Portfolio...
Richard Saldanha (Global Equity Portfolio Manager, Aviva Investors) | 2 trade ideas tracked | XLV, XLP | YouTube | Buzzberg