The speaker explicitly stated oil prices have the potential to hit $140 per barrel in three to four weeks, which is a $10 per barrel rise each week, if there is no meaningful de-escalation in the Iran conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed to most non-Iranian crude (only 3% of normal compliant crude flow), creating a massive supply shock. A return to safe navigation and normalized flows would take months even after hostilities end. The setup is for significant near-term upside pressure on oil prices due to the prolonged physical supply constraint, warranting close monitoring. Direction is WATCH due to high volatility and scenario dependency. A swift, unexpected diplomatic resolution and reopening of the Strait.