The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, controlled by Iran, with traffic consisting exclusively of Iran-linked shipments. Brent oil is hovering around $96, ~$20 above pre-war levels. Recent attacks have cut Saudi pipeline and refining capacity. The upcoming U.S.-Iran talks will determine if the Strait reopens, which is critical for global oil supply. The market is cautiously optimistic but edgy, with price direction contingent on the talks' outcome regarding Iranian sovereignty over the chokepoint. The immediate direction for oil is binary and tied to geopolitical diplomacy this weekend, making it a highly salient watch item. A breakthrough deal that reopens the Strait fully and quickly could pressure prices lower. A collapse in talks or Iran maintaining control could sustain or increase the geopolitical risk premium.