"The big driver is the fact that we see crude down 5%, well below that $100 handle." "Long-term investors are feeling more confident that the war will remain regional and governments worldwide will find options soon to open up supply routes." The initial war premium in oil prices is receding as the market judges the conflict will be contained geographically and not lead to a prolonged, catastrophic supply disruption. This view, combined with potential government action to secure alternative routes, suggests oil has peaked in the near term and could continue to drift lower, benefiting from a short-term reversion trade. SHORT oil via the USO ETF. The primary catalyst for the recent spike is fading, and technical reversal is in play. Significant escalation of the war, successful Iranian strikes on major Gulf oil infrastructure, or a breakdown in diplomatic efforts to secure supply routes.