Matthew Ryan 5.0 1 idea

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. We are seeing a relief rally [in oil prices dropping]. I don't think that will be one that holds for too much longer. Markets will want to see action over rhetoric at the moment. The current drop in oil prices is driven by a massive IEA SPR release and political rhetoric. However, an SPR release is a temporary physical band-aid. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked beyond the market's currently priced-in 5-week timeline, the structural supply deficit will overwhelm the SPR intervention, causing oil to violently reverse higher. WATCH. Wait for the immediate bearish impact of the SPR release to be fully priced in, then look for long entries if the physical blockage of the Strait persists. The US and Israel could successfully secure a naval corridor through the Strait, or a sudden diplomatic cease-fire could permanently remove the geopolitical risk premium.