Martin Horne

Horne argued that U.S. corporate earnings have shown resilience through multiple shocks, underpinned by a strong labor market and heavy investment in AI for future efficiency gains. He believes geopolitical events typically have short-lived market impacts. The core U.S. equity thesis, especially for large-cap indices like the S&P 500, remains intact based on nominal growth, earnings resilience, and technological investment, which insulates it relative to other economies facing the same shock. This is a LONG view on the broad U.S. market (best expressed via the S&P 500) as a relative haven with a durable earnings stream, advocating for looking through the short-term geopolitical volatility. The conflict escalates into a prolonged global recession that overcomes U.S. insulation.