Mark Montgomery 5.0 1 idea

Admiral Montgomery details the process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz: a 4-5 week air campaign, then mine-sweeping, then starting slow convoy operations (3-4 ships twice a day). He notes there are ~300 ships backed up in the Arabian Gulf that "will take some time to clear." The Strait is a critical global chokepoint for oil and container shipping. A closure lasting weeks, followed by a slow, convoy-based reopening, represents a massive logistical bottleneck. This will delay shipments, increase shipping costs (freight rates), and disrupt global supply chains for all goods, not just oil. Companies and sectors reliant on global maritime logistics (shipping, airlines, retailers, manufacturers) face significant operational disruption and cost inflation risks for the next 1-2 months minimum. The conflict ends abruptly and Iran cooperates with mine clearance, allowing for a faster-than-expected return to normal traffic flow.