Calls
6
#200
Alpha Score 80.4
Mark Kelly
Democratic Senator of Arizona / Member of Armed Services Committee
Win Rate
50.0%
return
+10.2%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Feb 13
$13.88
-8.9%
"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown.
"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown.
Airlines
Long
Feb 13
$234.87
-2.8%
"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly.
"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly.
Thematic ETFs
Short
Feb 13
$29.36
-3.0%
"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown.
"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown.
Thematic ETFs
Short
Feb 13
$51.11
+4.3%
"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown.
"Department of Homeland Security will be closed and set to shut down tonight... talking about the prospect of paychecks for folks in the TSA." When DHS funding lapses, TSA agents work without pay. Historically, this leads to "sick-outs," massive airport delays, and reduced travel efficiency. This directly impacts airline operations and consumer sentiment for travel in the immediate term. SHORT / AVOID Airlines due to operational risks from the government shutdown. A last-minute budget deal is reached in Washington, averting the shutdown.
Airlines
Long
Feb 13
$76.22
+65.1%
"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly.
"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly.
Commodities
Long
Feb 13
$54.35
+6.8%
"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly.
"The Pentagon redeploy is the USS Jerry Ford Carrier Strike Group once again heading back toward Iran... We did not obliterate [Iran's nuclear program]. They have the ability to rebuild it." The movement of a major Carrier Strike Group combined with the admission that Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact suggests a high probability of continued or escalated conflict. "Kinetic action" benefits defense primes (replenishing munitions) and creates a risk premium in energy markets due to potential Strait of Hormuz disruptions. LONG Defense and Energy as a hedge against Middle East escalation. Diplomatic de-escalation or a decision by the administration to withdraw support unexpectedly.
Thematic ETFs
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Mark Kelly has 6 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 6 tickers since February 2026. Ranked #200 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: ITA, XLE, BNO.
