Madhavi Arora
Chief Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Mar 06
$49.99
+5.3%
A $10 increase in Brent Crude results in a 0.5% hit to India's GDP. The current account deficit could worsen by 0.9% of GDP. India is a massive net importer of energy. While they have some Russian supply, the transcript notes that China is competing for that supply, and discounts are shrinking. High oil prices act as a direct tax on the Indian economy and currency. Short India equity exposure as a hedge against prolonged high energy prices. The US granting specific waivers to Indian refiners (mentioned by Avril Hong) could mitigate the shock.
A $10 increase in Brent Crude results in a 0.5% hit to India's GDP. The current account deficit could worsen by 0.9% of GDP. India is a massive net importer of energy. While they have some Russian supply, the transcript notes that China is competing for that supply, and discounts are shrinking. High oil prices act as a direct tax on the Indian economy and currency. Short India equity exposure as a hedge against prolonged high energy prices. The US granting specific waivers to Indian refiners (mentioned by Avril Hong) could mitigate the shock.
Macro
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