Lucy Baldwin

The speaker stated the ceasefire allows a resumption of the "broadening thesis" and "diversification thematic" in equities, where non-U.S. and smaller-cap stocks catch up, which had been a key theme at the start of the year. The war had halted this broadening trend by causing a defensive rush to quality and U.S. assets. The removal of this macro shock reinstates the prior trend of capital rotation into lagging markets and market segments. The ceasefire is a catalyst for a resumption of pre-war equity market dynamics, favoring a broader array of equities beyond the largest U.S. names. The ceasefire fails, or another global shock occurs that renews defensive positioning.